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Llegan los precogs de “Minority Report”: Un programa predice quién es más proclive a delinquir

26 agosto 2010 - 13:41 - Autor:

Los precogs de Minority, de momento innecesarios.

La realidad vuelve a imitar a la ficción. Recientemente nos hacíamos eco de la instalación en la ciudad mexicana de León de un sistema de reconocimiento de iris que, inevitablemente, remitía a los insidiosos lectores de ojos que perseguían a Tom Cruise en “Minority Report”. La empresa responsable de aquella instalación sostenía que en diez años el mundo se parecería al escenario descrito en la película de Spielberg “aunque sin precogs”. ¿Seguro? No tanto.

Casos como el asesinato de la niña Mari Luz en 2008 por un prófugo condenado por pederastia podrían haberse evitado de existir un sistema de anticipación como el que ya se utiliza en dos ciudades norteamericanas, Philadelphia y Baltimore.  El software anticipa la proclividad de los delincuentes a reincidir, a partir de una serie de 24 parámetros, desde el histórico criminal a la ubicación geográfica del ex preso, siendo las más variables más determinantes el tipo de delito y la edad a la que fue cometido. Las autoridades policiales de Washington estudian en este momento extender el sistema al resto del país.

El responsable del desarrollo es Richard Berk, profesor de la Universidad de Pennsilvania. Berk utilizó una base de datos de 60.000 delitos, incluyendo asesinatos, para trazar un perfil de los criminales más proclives a reincidir durante su libertad condicional o bajo fianza. En el sistema penal norteamericano un agente se encarga de supervisar la libertad condicional de los presos, basándose en la experiencia y la intuición del oficial y en la palabra del delincuente. “Este sistema sustituye esos cálculos a ojo de buen cubero”, afirma Berk en el diario inglés Daily Mail.

Los asesinatos (recordemos que las precogs de Minority sólo resolvía delitos de sangre) son extremadamente inusuales: la tasa de asesinatos está en torno a 1 por cada 100.000 habitantes y en grupos muy conflictivos se eleva a un máximo de 1 por cada 100. El sistema diseñado por la Universidad de Pensilvania es capaz de detectar a 8 asesinos de cada 100, según sus creadores.

No se trata del único sistema de anticipación del delito en uso en EEUU. Según relata Prison Planet, una activa web sobre libertades ciudadanas, la policía de Memphis utiliza un programa llamado Operación Blue Crush, basado en análisis predictivo desarrollado por IBM. Por su parte, el gobierno inglés “planea recolectar registros vitales de todos los residentes a partir de los cinco años, para intentar prever quiénes son más proclives de cometer delitos en el futuro”.

Posibilidades de comercialización: La percepción de la seguridad en EEUU es inversamente proporcional a la incidencia del delito. En consecuencia, sistemas como el presente tienen todas las bazas para salir adelante, por más que sea el propio sistema judicial y penal el que está podrido en sus raíces.

Visto en Daily Mail, ABC News y Prison Planet.

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